WP2 - Improved Global Climate Prediction by Initialization of Arctic Sea Ice and Sea-Surface Temperatures

Leader Noel Keenlyside (UiB); Co-leader Shuting Yang (DMI).

Participants: DMI; NERSC; SMHI; IC: IORAS; UCI; IAPRAS; NZC; AWI.

Strong internal variability may potentially mask some effects of anthropogenic global warming in the Arctic in the coming decades. Thus, decadal climate prediction, which account for both internal and anthropogenic factors, is required to forecast Arctic climate change over the next decade. Multi-model decadal predictions indicate variations in the subpolar North Atlantic can be forecast up to 10 years in advance. Although studies indicate the potential for downstream predictability, current systems show limited predictability in the Arctic North Atlantic. A key reason for this is probably the inadequate initialisation of sea ice and ocean state in this region.